Friday, August 19, 2011

Trades that should happen: CP3 In a Clipper Uni


If you were the New Orleans Hornets why wouldn't you want to deal Chris Paul? 

Regardless if the superstar point guard agrees to sign an extension or not shouldn't be the real concern. The fact is the Hornets have not been to at least the conference finals since he has been in the league and have recently found themselves in the middle of the NBA pack.

The worst thing to occur to a franchise in this league is to be in that middle ground: not good enough to be a true contender, but not bad enough to land a top pick.  Unfortunately, the Hornets are a clear example of such a franchise is their 1st round picks since Paul have been the following (this is before any draft trades were made etc):  19, 11, 21, 27, 13, and 12. 

There doesn't seem to be much hope on the horizon either for New Orleans as the team has no major young prospects to build around or even package in a last ditch effort to build a contending team around Chris Paul.

Finally, the last straw is Paul's looming free agency that is coming off the heels of David West's current free agency.  Now is the time to make a decision on Paul since it would entail re-signing David West this summer.

If the Hornets decide to go the rebuilding route, they can simply let West walk this summer and salvage decent value for Paul if he agrees to sign an extension with new team X.

So the route of rebuilding seems to be the clear path, but if New Orleans chooses that route what would they be looking for in a Chris Paul package?

Any perfect rebuilding package should include at least several of the following: future 1st round picks, young prospect(s), and expiring contracts...probably in that order.  Also, if I can add any long-term veteran contracts I won't really have use for in a rebuilding state that is an added bonus.  Finally, the final roster around Paul (and perhaps location and marketing opportunities) should be attractive enough that he would sign an extension there.

Who could offer the Hornets that exact package?  It would also need to be a team that Paul would likely sign an extension with given the final product and location.

The Los Angeles Clippers

A simple trade idea would be the following:

Chris Paul, Emeka Okafor
FOR
Chris Kaman, Eric Gordon, Randy Foye, 2012 Minnesota 1st Rd pick

Why it would work for the Hornets?

This deal satisfies all of the above criteria.  The Hornets net a valuable future pick, a nice young prospect, and expiring contracts (Kaman and Foye).  Chris Paul is paired with Blake Griffin in one of the biggest markets in the globe, and likely agrees to an extension.  What could be better?

The Hornets could probably make a few more moves if they chose to tinker around the roster and add a few picks (perhaps move Kaman to the Bucks for Gooden/Livingston and a Milwaukee future 1st, Foye or Jack to the Lakers for Walton and a future 1st, Ariza to the Raptors for Amir Johnson).   Either way, this one initial move certainly puts them in a great position to rebuild.

The main aspect would be having two picks in the top 10 to potentially add a few premier talents in what is supposedly one of the more touted and deepest classes in recent memory.

Why would the Clippers consider this?

Remember NBA Jam.  Recently an anniversary game came out for this video game featuring today's players.  Could you imagine the duo of Paul and Griffin in such a game?  Seriously, what duo would be more fun to play with?

Obviously no video game prospect could be reason to make a trade, but it does shed light on the potential impact both on and off the court for Chris Paul in LA.

On the court

According to Wins Produced (now I know many don't fully believe in this metric, but it does warrant some consideration in accumulating a team's final win total) the trio of Blake Griffin (15.6), Chris Paul (20.5) and Emeka Okafor (8.9) produced a total of 45 wins last season.  Now most teams operate by the Pareto Analysis (i.e. that 80% of their work is produced by 20% of the talent), which estimates that around 3 players produce roughly 80% of, the team's win total.  If this above trio simply replicates the above win total (considering Griffin should be increasing in production and Paul/Okafor should at least stay stagnant is very likely), the total win total for the Clippers could be around 56 next season, a figure that could rise over time with Griffin's progression.

The bigger question could be how would LA surround talent around this trio. 

The team would still have the current contracts of Mo Williams, Ryan Gomes, Eric Bledsoe, Brian Cook and Willie Warren.

At the very least the team would have two major holes: starting shooting guard and backup center

A starting 2-guard with such a core, the Clippers would be best suited looking to sign a pure shooter who can space the floor for Paul to penetrate the lane and Griffin to operate in the post.

The following 2-guards could fill in such a hole and would be available rather cheaply (4 million or less per year):
Mike Dunleavy JR, Delonte West, James Jones, Marco Belinelli, or Daequan Cook

As for backup center, netting Paul and Okafor via trade would likely mean the team would not match an offer sheet that D'Andre Jordan signed elsewhere.  The Clippers would be in the market for a cheap solid backup 5 who could play a rugged 15 minutes behind Okafor.  The following centers should be available for a rather cheap price and should suffice:
Jeff Foster, Erick Dampier, Hilton Armstrong, Jason Collins, Chris Wilcox, Aaron Gray, or Joey Dorsey

Assuming the Clippers could at least sign one player from each of the above lists, the following roster should be consistently competitive for Western Supremacy over the next decade in the league:

PF B. Griffin/ B. Cook
SF A. Farouq Aminu/ R. Gomes 
C   E. Okafor/ J. Foster
SG M. Dunleavy JR/ W. Warren
PG C. Paul/ M. Williams/ E. Bledsoe

Off the court

Such a trade would completely rebuild Clippers branding.  LA would not solely be a one-team basketball city with the Clips giving their bitter rival Lakers a run for their money.

This could change the ultimate scope of a franchise accustomed to playing second fiddle and change the framework of the loveable losers out West.

More importantly the deal would actually be great for the NBA.  It would pair up a future super star with a current one and add one more 'Must See' team to the selective list of several in this league.

Paul and Griffin! You'd want to play them on NBA JAM and will certainly pay top dollar to watch them in person.

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